Air Quality Model Forecasts

The current operational air quality forecast model is GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multi-scale - Modelling Air quality and CHemistry). This model is a comprehensive air quality model containing a full description of atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes. GEM-MACH is an in-line model, meaning that the meteorology is integrated in-step with the chemistry. The model uses the emissions inventory to assess the source of tropospheric ozone precursors. GEM-MACH is run twice a day over North America and is used to provide guidance for the production of air quality forecasts for Canadians.

The output over the next 48 hours is shown below for tropospheric ozone near the surface and at altitudes of 50 metres and 500 metres, and for PM 2.5 and PM10 near the surface. Forecasts for PM2.5, PM10, and ozone near the surface and for ozone at 500 metres can be viewed simultaneously on the 4-panel maps.

Maximum ozone near the surface over a 6-hour interval

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

Maximum ozone near 50 metres over a 6-hour interval

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

Maximum ozone near 500 metres over a 6-hour interval

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

PM2.5 near the surface - mean over a 6-hour interval

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

PM10 near the surface - mean over a 6-hour interval

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

4-panel maps (PM2.5, PM10, O3 near the surface, O3 near 500 metres)

Region	Forecasts [Run 00Z]
Eastern Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
Western Canada	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation
North America	hr: 006 ¦ 012 ¦ 018 ¦ 024 ¦ 030 ¦ 036 ¦ 042 ¦ 048 ¦ Animation

Note: Images are less than 50 kb per image.