Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Verification

The Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) calculates verification statistics on a daily basis for its suite of NWP systems. Statistics for the GEM model of the Regional and Global Deterministic Prediction Systems are calculated according to strictly defined WMO standards for scores against radiosonde observations and against model analyses. A subset of these scores is exchanged with the other major NWP Centres around the globe on a monthly basis. In this way, trends in CMC model performance can be followed and compared against the other leading Centres.

The following graphs, based on the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts against the North American radiosonde observation network, give an idea of how well a numerical model forecasts the overall synoptic pattern of the atmosphere over North America.