Belle Isle Bank: Synopsis

Technical Marine Synopsis

Issued 3:00 AM NDT 29 August 2014 Today Tonight and Saturday At 3:00 a.m. NDT today Hurricane Cristobal 970 mb located at
41.0N 53.7W.
By 8:00 p.m. NDT tonight departing Post-tropical Storm Cristobal
970 mb located at 48.5N 42.5W.

At 3:00 a.m. NDT today trough located over southeastern
Newfoundland.
By 3:30 p.m. NDT today merging trough located on a line
northeast-southwest over the northern Grand Banks.
 

Marine Weather Statement

Issued 2:54 AM NDT 29 August 2014 At 3:00 AM NDT hurricane Cristobal was located near 41.0 north, 53.7
west or about 400 nautical miles south-southwest of St. John's.
The maximum sustained winds are estimated at 75 knots and the central
pressure at 970 MB. Cristobal is moving east-northeast at 43 knots
and is expected to track across the Southeastern Grand Banks today.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure stretching across Southeastern
Newfoundland will move southeastwards and get absorbed by hurricane
Cristobal today. North of this trough, gale force northeasterlies
will begin to subside later today as it is absorbed. Closer to the
track of hurricane Cristobal, storm to hurricane force winds can be
expected today.

Marine interests are advised that hurricane force wind warnings are
in effect for the Southeastern Grand Banks and Southwestern Grand
Banks - southeastern half. A storm warning is in effect for Northern
Grand Banks - southeastern half. Gale warnings are in effect for
Southwest Coast, South Coast, East Coast, Northern Grand Banks -
northwestern half, and Southwestern Grand Banks - northwestern half.

With the passage of hurricane Cristobal well offshore of
Newfoundland, its rapid forward speed of travel over the Southeastern
Grand Banks may trigger rapid tide-like changes in harbour water
levels over Eastern Newfoundland. The most probable period for this
would be this afternoon or early evening, and areas most prone to
this range from the Southern Avalon to the Bonavista Peninsula.
Tropical storms that have raced across the Grand Banks (moving over
100 km/h) in the past have caused water levels in harbours to rise
and fall 2 or 3 times over the span of an hour and fluctuate by as
much as 2 or 3 metres (6 to 10 feet).

This is an advisory that this may - repeat may - occur and interests
along the coast should be on the watch for this possibility from late
morning to early evening. Predicting the actual water level changes
for various harbours is very difficult. The high (natural) tide in
the region will be in the 10:30 to 11:30 AM time frame and will be
low in the 4:30 to 5:30 PM timeframe. If this does occur in the
afternoon then there could be issues with very low water levels.
If the storm accelerates significantly more than forecast then water
levels could be high enough to pose some issues. These storms have
been known to accelerate even more rapidly than forecast.

Marine interests are also advised to monitor the latest forecasts
from the Canadian Hurricane Centre and the Newfoundland and Labrador
weather office for updates on the Progress of Cristobal and its
impacts on Newfoundland marine waters.