Ensemble spread of trial fields
Every 6 hours, we compute the ensemble standard deviation of the trial fields used in the assimilation cycles of the temperature (in Celsius) at a level located approximately at an altitude of 5 km. Where the standard deviation of the trial fields is large, the uncertainty is large. It is important to have good observations for these uncertain areas. One might target additional observations to such areas to try to diminish the uncertainty. On the map below, the mean of the trial fields is shown by the black solid lines at every 5 degrees Celsius. The standard deviation of the trial fields around the mean is displayed in colour on the same chart.
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